I decided to post out a message about Willett's
Wager to a number of newsgroups. (OK, a huge number of newsgroups).
Here are a few of the more interesting replies I received.
Martin
Hello, I read your post I found it most interesting, the only
part that I don't quite understand is you quote yourself as being
an "absurd optimist" I would have classed you as being very logical
the problem with the Newsgroups is I find the people who post
have nothing interesting to say about this particular topic, just
a load of crap about Aliens eating their grandparents but i found
your post most interesting, do u have a webpage in association
with this subject or any other views because I find this subject
very interesting and rewarding and i'll look forward to hearing
from you.
Thanx for your time. |
This was a non-sense writings on ufos theology
so get some IQs please.
yatko |
They do get better, although not straight away...
If an advanced being entertained
religious notions, he/she/it would not be advanced. He/she/it would
be in the same unenlightened category as earth people ....on the
brink of self-destruction. When one understands their own divinity
... there is no need for 'religion'.
Peace!!
moondove |
You are half right, half wrong and motivated by good intentions,
or to put it another way, dangerous.
Can you think of how a community can advance past the religious
phase? There is little evidence of any mechanism. Man has had
space craft, and put men in them who believed in sky pixies. We
have sent men into the unknown to found colonies, and laid the
vessels down with bibles and priests.
We have the technology to travel to other planets virtually within
our grasp, we just have yet to get our act together to do it.
Serious space colonization could be a mere couple of our generations
away. This does not give us the time to rid ourselves of current
religions.
Why should we assume any space-faring aliens, if they exist,
would be without similar religions? We have but one example to
study, ourselves, and we find that superstitions persist despite
growing levels of science and technology. Religions are not withering
away. They remain. We are not evolving "better" religions. We
are stuck with the old religions and the odd change in minor detail,
changes that make the religions stronger.
Faith in the rightness of your own beliefs is not sufficient.
There is little or no correlation between intelligence, sophistication
and belief. Very bright and educated people convert to Catholicism,
or Judaism or Buddhism all the time. I can see no reason to expect
religions to pass away, survival is in their nature. I can see
no reason to expect intelligent beings to grasp the truth, all
the evidence shows that we grasp onto ideas that feel comfortable
and I can see no reason to expect any other intelligent species
to do any different.
Martin
|
When technological growth surpasses
spiritual growth the result is self-destruction, therefore I dare
say it is safe to assume that most 'aliens' that have developed
the technology to visit our sorry planet would have to be advanced
spiritually to the point where they have come to understand the
folly of religious dogma.
On the other hand, perhaps we don't even exist
(I have yet to meet anyone who can actually prove that we do)
therefore it doesn't really matter 
Peace!!
moondove |
You still totally miss the point, don't you? As we are becoming
more technologically advanced our religions are simply refusing
to melt away. Why should a trend that is not happening be expected
to continue to a conclusion?
The only evidence we have about religions and technology suggest
that religions respond and keep themselves in the game. Religions
evolve and survive. Technology feeds itself. Continue those two
trends and, if they can avoid destroying themselves, it seems
likely that any species that can develop the technology for interstellar
transportation would remain subject to some form of religious
belief, at least in part of the community.
Yes, on Star Trek and the like nations, religions and money all
dissolve with "progress" but can anybody demonstrate how this
is to occur?
Please send me the social blueprint along with the plans for
construction of a warp drive engine. I expect the second one is
more likely, I am not certain that the speed of light can be exceeded,
but I expect that it is a simpler challenge than removing religion.
Martin |
Although I had originally dismissed
your claim that superstitious memetic structures would be found
throughout the Universe (in intelligent species), I now see it as
a real possibility.
Superstitious memes, or S&M as I commonly refer
to them are highly utilizable for those who create them and or
assert them. Not because of their relationship with the content
of the meme, because there is no content, but because of their
relationship with other people.
It's quite simple. When you offer explanations
to others about the world around you there is a chance that they
will believe you. If they do, you will likely be rewarded with
the recognition of being intelligent. Modern times aside, those
with relatively greater intelligence have found seats of higher
status.
So it makes perfect sense (to me) that S&M would
evolve. They allow party one to manipulate and even control party
two. A more natural survival tactic there is not.
Steve
(Posted on The
Forum) |
Memes are likely to occur everywhere. There is nothing about
an idea that limits it being re-invented at different times and
places. A meme is just an idea, nothing more. It is not self aware
or self propelled or anything of the sort. Just a series of concepts
strung together.
There is nothing particularly strange and unique about the concepts
involved in religious memes. It is quite likely that all intelligent
communicating communities will spontaneously develop them, given
time. Survival after death, re-birth, re-incarnation, punishment
or reward by supernatural forces, placating gods by sacrifice:
all of these concepts seem to have developed several times independently
among human communities but there is nothing distinctly mammalian,
terrestrial, hominid or even organic about such ideas, there is
no reason to believe that such ideas could not occur to mortal
evolved beings based on silicon or tin compounds which swim in
seas of liquid methane as long as they were communicating and
intelligent.
Once such ideas have been thought up their meme-like qualities
come into play. Ideas which are rewarding to pass on will be more
likely to be passed on than other ideas. Reward can come from
the intrinsic appeal of the ideas, their perceived poetry if you
will, or from their utility. Many ideas are seen as so smart that
the bearers of the ideas can bask in the glow. |
All that you think is very well
presented and without question on the mark, excepting that aliens
have made contact in many way, however, covert. I have had alien
interaction with many different species. They are in fact, despite
being advanced beyond mankind in many ways, just as you suppose.
They are in fact, just as mankind is in his world with himself,
very divided by species and philosophies and religions ideas, and
just as mankind, sometimes war over these differences. Whether intelligent
life is in parallel space, other dimensions, or other planets and
galaxies, living spiritually or in physical bodies that are different
in density or as of the physical structure of mankind, this world
is a microcosm of how all of these other places. It's not all that
different, despite what is known beyond mankind's ability to know
at this time. As mankind can see himself, mankind can see his aliens.
It's that simple. Apply this principal and aliens and mankind's
gods become less of a mystery. |
I am sorry that I cannot join you in your world of alien believers.
I cannot understand how something as important as the truth of alien
encounters could be concealed in the modern world. Likewise I can
see no reason why there would not be an enormous number of unfounded
stories of conspiracy and cover-up. It is a natural and inevitable
consequence of communication and our powerful ability to believe
coupled with our relatively puny means of discovering truth and
our total lack of any way of measuring or feeling truth. We can
no more feel the truth than we can hear the colour green or taste
sounds. What utter nonsense it is to tell ourselves that this or
that idea feels like the truth. Does six feel like eight minus two?
Or smell like it, come to that.
I have a working hypothesis that at all times any community generates
a supply of conspiracy theories, supernatural stories, religions
and off the wall scientific theories. Unfortunately approximately
5% or so of these at any one time contain some important truth.
It is unfortunate that this is not either higher or lower because
it means scientists have to walk a tight-rope between aloof scepticism
and being open to any bit of nonsense that comes along.
100 years ago scientists scoffed at tales of fairies, astrology,
acupuncture, ghosts, the spirit world, moving continents, apemen,
tusked deer, fire breathing dragons, sea monsters and Atlantis.
Now we know that there are mountain gorillas (hardly surprising,
we have known about lowland gorillas for centuries) we know there
are giant monitor lizards and giant squid. We also know that the
continents have moved and we know the broad outline of the reasons
why, how and when. We have also found that there is some use for
acupuncture. But we have not proved the Chinese theories behind
acupuncture any more than we have proved the justification for
eating tiger penis soup. Astrology is still as far from the scientific
mainstream as ever despite the discovery a new planet and the
non-discovery of any possible agent of astrological causation.
We have found deer with tusks and we have discovered how the genetics
of body size in deer correlates to antler size and tusk length.
We have found drowned areas of inhabited land under the Black
Sea but nothing remotely like a sunken continent in the Atlantic.
The scientific approach of scepticism with the flexibility to
adopt any truth that comes along has proved itself conclusively
to be the right approach.
I believe that there are alien intelligences in the universe.
I have run the simulation of the Drake Equation several times
with my own hunches and every time I come up with a number of
likely intelligent communities that is relatively small, a few
thousand at the most optimistic. Only by inputting figures for
longevity of intelligent communities that I am not comfortable
with can I produce a large number as the answer. Of course all
this is speculation but my own predictions are that planetary
systems are widespread, or normal, life is present on the majority
of earth-sized planets, principally in bacterial form. A small
number will have produced multi-cellular life. An even smaller
number will have produced complex multi-cellular life. Of those
I see no reason to expect the evolution of communicating intelligence
to be anything like inevitable. In our long history of complex
life hundreds of millions of species have lived and gone extinct
and only one genus has come anywhere near the level of intelligence
required for space-faring. Ants and beetles and rats and ospreys
and bacteria have no need of radios or rockets. Or priests.
Martin |
If I think of Atlantis, I have to think
of a life I had on Atlantis. If I think of aliens, I have to think
of interactions I have had with aliens. If I think of those who
mankind sees as his gods, I have to think about the interactions
I have had with those gods. I don't talk about what I believe
or wonder about as existing much, but rather, I speak of what
I have experienced, in this life time, as well as past lives,
and know that my journey through life began even before this planet
was a world as it is known today.
I don't expect you to believe me by might
of what you have to say, but I do believe that with your curiosity
and desire to know, you will likely in time, however many more
life times, discover the truth or falsity behind some of the
things you wonder and think upon, if your soul manages to survive.
I don't debate what I know and I don't
normally discuss what I believe, although I do express opinions.
I know that I am immortal and you talk like a mortal. I cannot
know if you are mortal, but it is unlikely that you would believe
as you do, were that not true. Of course, past life memory and
memory of one's history is not always known to one in the human
condition. So, for all the things that you wonder and think
about, there might be good reason, such as buried recalls you
are unable to retrieve in the human state of existence.
I do think you tend to dismiss things out
of hand, but you seem inquisitive and that is commendable. I
wish you a continued journey in life and feel I have nothing
I can possibly pass onto you, since you have yet to sort out
what you believe from what you know.
Good luck in your quests and try not to
make conclusions, excepting those that are open ended and flexible,
so that you don't convince yourself of things that are untrue,
which can't be extracted if the time should come when you are
confronted with truth, that possibly might be the difference
between moving on, or staying behind.
Best,
Dickk
|
Well, what interesting speculation.
Is religion synonymous with intelligence? Are we synonymous with
intelligence? I suppose that this would be also a question of culture
and if there is a higher culture? In my own hopefully materialist
thinking does science win over religion or just provide more complexities?
What of our own "quest" of spirituality that is supposed to be even
devoid of religion? Could it be that religion is that expression
of order and emotion to yet be obtained in expression? Is that what
is not music all about?
You might be correct of course, they might just
be as unknowing and mislead in their belief system as much of
humanity. The ultimate truth however, might just as well elude
us as well as them. I doubt that we may ever even understand all
our own culture much less one that is alien. Perhaps we may never
really understand ourselves without some others to compare. As
Isaac Asminov says,: "the universe is stranger than we could have
ever imagined". I hope for one, that they are more culturally
complex than is portrayed by Hollywood. |
Religious belief is not synonymous with intelligence, it is a
by-product. In a similar way as obesity is a by-product of a successful
economy, it follows on, whilst not being inevitable as such it is
a consequence that tends to follow. I am unaware of any successful
economy that does not have a problem with obesity and likewise all
human cultures have had some degree of religious beliefs. There
is cause and effect but no absolute inevitability. Hence my theory
in the form of a wager, incidentally a wager I would love to lose.
Ideally I would love to lose the bet by seeing a complete withering
away of religion in a human society here on Earth rather than
having to wait for the slim chance of extra-terrestrial contact.
My theory is based on the study of memetics, which is the application
of the "evolutionary algorithm" to human culture.
Evolution is not a force of nature, or God, or destiny or Gaia.
It is a simple fact of mathematics that does not require a universe
in which to be true. Evolution was inevitable before the big bang.
It is inevitable from the kind of fundamental principles that
have no choice but to be true. If there is an entity that replicates
but does not do so with 100% copying fidelity, and it exists in
a universe with a finite supply of the raw ingredients necessary
to form copies there must be evolution. Any communicating culture
satisfies those requirements, ideas can be spontaneously thought
up which can get copied from brain to brain, but brains and communicating
mechanisms are finite, not all ideas can be passed on. There is
competition for the media of communication, we cannot read every
book that is written or listen to every song or study every religion
or even pass on every rumour about Michael Jackson's sex life.
Only those ideas that have what it takes to be spread will spread,
those ideas are memes. Some memes are immortal like the laws of
Moses or even more long lasting ones like the traces of similarity
in languages as distant as Celtic and Japanese, others are popular
in an ephemeral way (remember the Ninja Turtles) and most are
neither particularly popular nor long lasting.
My theory is that
1] Religious ideas cannot fail to arise spontaneously in a
community that is intelligent and communicative. (Secondary
assumption: communication is necessary for intelligence.)
2] Religious ideas will be fit memes, they will have what it
takes to spread because perceived unfairness and/or death are
also inevitable and unavoidable in any intelligent community.
3] Religious memes will collect together in memeplexes, sets
of ideas that go well together, support each other and enhance
each other's chances of being passed on intact. These memeplexes
will be, by definition, religions.
4] Religions will generate whatever proofs or other tricks
are required to justify their existence. Over time the memeplex
will evolve to contain sufficient tools to fend off whatever
outsiders can muster against them.
5] The ever-evolving memeplexes will be able to withstand any
change of scientific belief and accommodate themselves to any
level of culture, just as Bronze Age ideas at the heart of Judaism
are still kept burning (literally) in the houses of particle
physicists.
6] Final proof of the existence of god or an afterlife is not
possible.
7] Despite the existence of complex religious memeplexes non-belief
will also be widespread.
8] A permanent state of a mixed community of religious believers
and non-believers is to be expected in any intelligent communicating
community. Although there is no way of predicting what the ratio
of belief to non-belief will be.
Since coming up with the original theory last year I have thought
some more about the subject with particular emphasis on the nature
of truth. I am at a loss to work out how a mechanism for perceiving
truth directly can ever be made. There are only two alternatives,
it is evolved or invented. But I am still unable to see how either
route could work. We can only invent things which show information
and measure things, no machine can feel and communicate that feeling.
When I say no machine can feel I mean that as we do not understand
what a feeling is, even in our own body, there is no way in which
we can replicate this in a device in a way that the device can
communicate a feeling back to us.
Secondly how can a truth feeling organ evolve? What mechanisms
are available? How could natural selection "reward" (through differential
survival or breeding success) a part of a brain or other organ
that could "feel the truth" of pi or the mystery of the trinity?
It is an obvious non-starter. We not only have no such organ it
is a logical impossibility that it could ever evolve. And if we
have no model of a truth sensor available from nature we would
have to hope for some lateral thinking genius to come up with
a clue to how such a device could be made, a process that could
take longer than the history of the universe. It is not that such
a truth engine could never exist it is just that I can see no
possible way in which we could even begin to sketch out the first
hint of a design or even to suggest how to begin the fundamental
research needed to bring it about. We could divert the entire
output of the planet to the cause and get nowhere because we haven't
the first clue as to how to do it. The Manhattan project was different,
we knew what was required and how it would work, it was just very
difficult to do in practice. But a truth engine is as hard to
develop as a time machine or warp drive engine, we don't know
for certain that it could work never mind how it might work.
Humans cannot perceive truth directly, which is a great pity,
it means we have to expect to share our planet with priests, astrologers
and lawyers in perpetuity. (I never claimed to be an optimist.)
Martin |
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