Edgar Pearlstein
Lincoln, NE
Pascal's wager is a response to disbelief in the Christian God.
Pascal approaches the question as a gambler would, weighing the risks
against the possible payoff. (Blaise Pascal, 1623-62, was a founder
of probability theory.) So, he says, one should believe, since if
the belief turns out to be correct, much is gained, but if it turns
out to be wrong, nothing is lost. In other words, it's a "play
safe" argument. It's a variation of the insurance salesman's
pitch that starts with "What if....?".
I can think of four problems with this idea:
(1) Sincere belief is not something that can be turned on and off,
although one can pretend to believe something and go through the
motions.
(2) The "gambler" is not faced with a simple either-or
choice, but a large number of choices. Pascal tacitly assumed that
the Christian god, with rewards and punishments according to Pascal's
form of Christianity, is the only thing in question. However, there
are many other possible choices for what to believe or not. Which
god(s), and which form of belief: Hebrew, Christian (several variations),
Muslim, Hindu, Zoroastrian, American Indian, Voodoo, ...? All of
them have had many sincere adherents. One can't worship or believe
in them all, or even compromise, since in some cases worshiping one
of these gods will antagonize another one. Remember that the god
of the Hebrews is explicitly jealous. Maybe some of the other gods
are too. So you might have more to lose by wagering on the wrong
god than by wagering on none at all!
(3) Suppose we agree, say by "creation science" reasoning,
that there is a god and only one god. But maybe the real god is a
bit different from the Old Testament god, in that he (she, it) hates
having people always trying to kiss his butt, does not approve of
the killing of animals for sacrifice, and prefers people to have
enough self respect that they won't do those things. Maybe the god
(or gods) prefers people to listen to reason rather than have faith
in mythology. Another possibility is that he wants us to annually
throw a virgin into the crater of a volcano! How does one know?
(4) In the spirit of "just in case" or "what if",
we should take precautions against voodoo curses, avoid bad luck
brought on by black cats, knock on wood, and throw salt over the
left shoulder. We should go to every fortune teller, psychic, and
astrologer, for maybe one of them is legitimate. Always carry a crucifix
and a bulb of garlic, just in case the stories about vampires are
true. We should follow all the 600-odd rules for living as laid down
in the Bible books of Leviticus and Deuteronomy. This paragraph might
seem like just a cheap attempt at reductio ad absurdum, but I maintain
it's more, since all of the above have their sincere believers.
And regardless of whether there are gods, we should obey the injunction
to be good, just in case it's true that we are under the surveillance
of Santa Claus!
By Edgar Perlstein |